Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.008130 0.009159 0.010270 0.011561 0.013019 0.014616 0.016500
2026-01-25 0.006450 0.007854 0.009494 0.011555 0.014080 0.017075 0.020908
2026-02-01 0.005409 0.006949 0.008849 0.011371 0.014638 0.018738 0.024294
2026-02-08 0.004773 0.006406 0.008512 0.011435 0.015401 0.020613 0.028019
2026-02-15 0.004230 0.005894 0.008124 0.011341 0.015883 0.022098 0.031298
2026-02-22 0.003902 0.005624 0.008012 0.011579 0.016801 0.024209 0.035593
2026-03-01 0.003450 0.005125 0.007520 0.011211 0.016793 0.024972 0.037973
2026-03-08 0.003111 0.004752 0.007166 0.010997 0.016965 0.025981 0.040767
2026-03-15 0.002801 0.004391 0.006792 0.010705 0.016976 0.026720 0.043176
2026-03-22 0.002685 0.004316 0.006842 0.011069 0.018030 0.029146 0.048466
2026-03-29 0.002550 0.004197 0.006810 0.011291 0.018862 0.031273 0.053434
2026-04-05 0.002435 0.004098 0.006798 0.011540 0.019751 0.033549 0.058838
2026-04-12 0.002260 0.003889 0.006593 0.011453 0.020074 0.034921 0.062839
2026-04-19 0.002116 0.003719 0.006441 0.011444 0.020531 0.036561 0.067473
2026-04-26 0.001957 0.003511 0.006204 0.011261 0.020656 0.037611 0.071101
2026-05-03 0.001853 0.003390 0.006109 0.011325 0.021229 0.039510 0.076480
2026-05-10 0.001734 0.003234 0.005938 0.011231 0.021496 0.040854 0.080897
2026-05-17 0.001672 0.003177 0.005943 0.011467 0.022408 0.043485 0.088081
2026-05-24 0.001536 0.002969 0.005650 0.011103 0.022114 0.043749 0.090489
2026-05-31 0.001430 0.002812 0.005443 0.010891 0.022101 0.044560 0.094085
2026-06-07 0.001325 0.002647 0.005208 0.010602 0.021907 0.044984 0.096890
2026-06-14 0.001300 0.002643 0.005288 0.010962 0.023084 0.048317 0.106262
2026-06-21 0.001262 0.002607 0.005301 0.011182 0.023980 0.051127 0.114729